Leinster vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% LeinsterLeinster 51.5%draw 2.5%46.0% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Montpellier Herault and 27 Leinster, half of them between 3 Montpellier Herault and 15 Leinster, with the middle run at 5 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Leinster 1915, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 57 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster5–0–1Montpellier Herault6 meetings, 2016 to 2022 · Leinster by 27.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-16 | Leinster 89–7 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
| 2020-12-12 | Montpellier Herault 14–35 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2018-01-20 | Montpellier Herault 14–23 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2017-10-14 | Leinster 24–17 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
| 2017-01-13 | Leinster 57–3 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.