Leinster vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% LeinsterLeinster 57.3%draw 2.5%40.2% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Montpellier Herault and 30 Leinster, with the middle run at 6 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leinster, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Leinster 1912, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 30 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster5–0–1Montpellier Herault6 meetings, 2016 to 2022 · Leinster by 27.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-16 | Leinster 89–7 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
| 2020-12-12 | Montpellier Herault 14–35 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2018-01-20 | Montpellier Herault 14–23 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2017-10-14 | Leinster 24–17 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
| 2017-01-13 | Leinster 57–3 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.