Leinster vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster host Munster on Saturday 24 October at Aviva Stadium, Dublin, so Leinster are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Leinster 80.3%draw 2.5%17.2% MunsterMunster 49.6%draw 2.5%47.9% LeinsterLeinster 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Munster and 28 Leinster, half of them between 1 Leinster and 18 Leinster, with the middle run at 8 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-14 on a tight afternoon and 31-23 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Leinster 1915, Munster 1728 — 187 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster22–0–4Munster26 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Leinster by 6.0 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Leinster by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | Munster 8–13 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2025-10-18 | Leinster 14–31 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Croke Park |
| 2024-12-27 | Munster 7–28 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-10-12 | Leinster 26–12 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Croke Park |
| 2023-12-26 | Munster 3–9 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.