Leinster vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 66.8%draw 2.5%30.7% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% LeinsterLeinster 52.9%draw 2.5%44.6% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Northampton Saints and 29 Leinster, half of them between 2 Northampton Saints and 17 Leinster, with the middle run at 6 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Leinster 1915, Northampton Saints 1957 — 42 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster6–0–1Northampton Saints7 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Leinster by 20.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Leinster 34–37 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-05-04 | Leinster 20–17 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Croke Park |
| 2020-12-19 | Leinster 35–19 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
| 2019-12-14 | Leinster 50–21 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2019-12-07 | Northampton Saints 16–43 Leinster | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.