Leinster vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 78.4%draw 2.5%19.1% Racing 92Racing 92 41.1%draw 2.5%56.4% LeinsterLeinster 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Racing 92 and 33 Leinster, half of them between 1 Leinster and 21 Leinster, with the middle run at 10 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Leinster 1915, Racing 92 1632 — 283 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster3–0–0Racing 923 meetings, 2018 to 2023 · Leinster by 20.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Leinster 36–10 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-12-10 | Racing 92 10–42 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Oceane |
| 2018-05-12 | Leinster 15–12 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | San Mames |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.