Leinster vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 76.7%draw 2.5%20.8% Racing 92Racing 92 45.0%draw 2.5%52.5% LeinsterLeinster 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Racing 92 and 32 Leinster, with the middle run at 9 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leinster, negative favours Racing 92.
Leinster 1912, Racing 92 1707 — 205 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster3–0–0Racing 923 meetings, 2018 to 2023 · Leinster by 20.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Leinster 36–10 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-12-10 | Racing 92 10–42 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Oceane |
| 2018-05-12 | Leinster 15–12 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | San Mames |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.