Leinster vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% Sale SharksSale Sharks 33.8%draw 2.5%63.7% LeinsterLeinster 73.0%draw 2.5%24.5% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Sale Sharks and 35 Leinster, half of them between 2 Leinster and 23 Leinster, with the middle run at 11 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Leinster 1915, Sale Sharks 1504 — 411 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster2–0–0Sale Sharks2 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Leinster by 20.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Leinster 43–13 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-12-16 | Leinster 37–27 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.