Leinster vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% SaracensSaracens 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% LeinsterLeinster 58.1%draw 2.5%39.4% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Saracens and 30 Leinster, half of them between level and 18 Leinster, with the middle run at 7 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Leinster 1915, Saracens 1861 — 54 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster1–0–2Saracens3 meetings, 2018 to 2020 · Saracens by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-19 | Leinster 17–25 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2019-05-11 | Leinster 10–20 Saracens | European Champions Cup | St James' Park |
| 2018-04-01 | Leinster 30–19 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.