Leinster vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 85.7%draw 2.5%11.8% ScarletsScarlets 25.1%draw 2.5%72.4% LeinsterLeinster 81.2%draw 2.5%16.3% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 36 Leinster, half of them between 4 Leinster and 24 Leinster, with the middle run at 12 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-13 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Leinster 1915, Scarlets 1273 — 642 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster12–1–6Scarlets19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 10.3 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Leinster by 16.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Leinster 36–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-05-31 | Leinster 33–21 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Scarlets 35–22 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-11-18 | Leinster 54–5 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2022-10-28 | Scarlets 5–35 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.