Leinster vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 86.9%draw 2.5%10.6% ScarletsScarlets 22.8%draw 2.5%74.7% LeinsterLeinster 80.0%draw 2.5%17.5% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 38 Leinster, with the middle run at 12 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leinster, negative favours Scarlets.
Leinster 1912, Scarlets 1334 — 578 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster11–1–6Scarlets18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 10.2 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Leinster by 17.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Leinster 36–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Scarlets 35–22 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-11-18 | Leinster 54–5 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2022-10-28 | Scarlets 5–35 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2021-10-16 | Leinster 50–15 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.