Leinster vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 74.6%draw 2.5%22.9% SharksSharks 47.7%draw 2.5%49.8% LeinsterLeinster 62.8%draw 2.5%34.7% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Sharks and 31 Leinster, half of them between level and 19 Leinster, with the middle run at 8 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-14 on a tight afternoon and 32-24 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Leinster 1915, Sharks 1746 — 169 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster5–0–2Sharks7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Leinster by 12.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Sharks 26–20 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-10-11 | Leinster 31–5 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-03-29 | Sharks 7–10 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-10-28 | Leinster 34–13 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2023-05-06 | Leinster 35–5 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.