Leinster vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 64.5%draw 2.5%33.0% LeinsterLeinster 49.8%draw 2.5%47.7% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Stade Toulousain and 25 Leinster, half of them between 2 Stade Toulousain and 15 Leinster, with the middle run at 5 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Leinster 1915, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 77 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster4–0–2Stade Toulousain6 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Leinster by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-25 | Leinster 22–31 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| 2023-04-29 | Leinster 41–22 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-05-14 | Leinster 40–17 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2019-04-21 | Leinster 30–12 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2019-01-12 | Leinster 29–13 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.