Leinster vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% StormersStormers 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% LeinsterLeinster 51.2%draw 2.5%46.3% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stormers and 25 Leinster, half of them between 3 Stormers and 14 Leinster, with the middle run at 5 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 27 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-15 on a tight afternoon and 30-25 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Leinster 1915, Stormers 1845 — 70 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster2–1–3Stormers6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Stormers by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Leinster 20–11 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-09-26 | Stormers 35–0 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Leinster 36–12 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Stormers 42–12 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-03-24 | Leinster 22–22 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.