Leinster vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% StormersStormers 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% LeinsterLeinster 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Stormers and 32 Leinster, with the middle run at 7 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leinster, negative favours Stormers.
Leinster 1912, Stormers 1716 — 196 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster2–1–2Stormers5 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Stormers by 6.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Leinster 20–11 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-09-26 | Stormers 35–0 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Leinster 36–12 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Stormers 42–12 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-03-24 | Leinster 22–22 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.