Leinster vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 86.3%draw 2.5%11.2% ToulonToulon 25.5%draw 2.5%72.0% LeinsterLeinster 79.4%draw 2.5%18.1% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Toulon and 34 Leinster, with the middle run at 11 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leinster, negative favours Toulon.
Leinster 1912, Toulon 1435 — 477 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster1–0–3Toulon4 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Leinster 29–25 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-12-19 | Leinster 16–20 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-12-13 | Toulon 24–9 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2015-04-19 | Toulon 25–20 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Orange Velodrome |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.