Leinster vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% ToulonToulon 46.9%draw 2.5%50.6% LeinsterLeinster 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Toulon and 34 Leinster, half of them between 2 Leinster and 22 Leinster, with the middle run at 10 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Leinster 1915, Toulon 1663 — 252 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster1–0–3Toulon4 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Leinster 29–25 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-12-19 | Leinster 16–20 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-12-13 | Toulon 24–9 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2015-04-19 | Toulon 25–20 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Orange Velodrome |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.