Leinster vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 86.8%draw 2.5%10.7% ZebreZebre 16.1%draw 2.5%81.4% LeinsterLeinster 84.3%draw 2.5%13.2% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Leinster, with the middle run at 14 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leinster, negative favours Zebre.
Leinster 1912, Zebre 1309 — 603 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster15–0–0Zebre15 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Leinster by 30.8 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Leinster by 28.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Leinster 50–26 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Leinster 76–5 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-03-23 | Zebre 7–31 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-09-17 | Zebre 29–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2021-10-09 | Leinster 43–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.