Leinster vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 90.5%draw 2.5%7.0% ZebreZebre 13.8%draw 2.5%83.7% LeinsterLeinster 87.5%draw 2.5%10.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Leinster and 39 Leinster, half of them between 5 Leinster and 27 Leinster, with the middle run at 14 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Leinster 1915, Zebre 1071 — 844 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster15–0–0Zebre15 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Leinster by 30.8 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Leinster by 28.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Leinster 50–26 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Leinster 76–5 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-03-23 | Zebre 7–31 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-09-17 | Zebre 29–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2021-10-09 | Leinster 43–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.