Lions vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 73.8%draw 2.5%23.7% LyonLyon 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% LionsLions 59.9%draw 2.5%37.6% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Lyon and 24 Lions, half of them between level and 15 Lions, with the middle run at 6 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Lions 1664, Lyon 1487 — 177 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–0Lyon1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Lions by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Lions 42–33 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.