Lions vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 34.2%draw 2.5%63.3% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 83.0%draw 2.5%14.5% LionsLions 23.5%draw 2.5%74.0% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Montpellier Herault and 13 Lions, half of them between 14 Montpellier Herault and 4 Lions, with the middle run at 4 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Lions are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Lions 1664, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 308 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions0–0–2Montpellier Herault2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Montpellier Herault by 16.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Montpellier Herault 28–5 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-01-13 | Montpellier Herault 13–3 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.