Lions vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% LionsLions 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Montpellier Herault and 18 Lions, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Lions are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Lions 1678, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 203 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions0–0–2Montpellier Herault2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Montpellier Herault by 16.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Montpellier Herault 28–5 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-01-13 | Montpellier Herault 13–3 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.