Lions vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 61.1%draw 2.5%36.4% MunsterMunster 67.1%draw 2.5%30.4% LionsLions 45.8%draw 2.5%51.7% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Munster and 24 Lions, with the middle run at 3 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Munster.
Lions 1678, Munster 1670 — 8 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–3Munster4 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Munster by 13.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Munster 24–17 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-04-27 | Lions 13–33 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-01-06 | Munster 33–3 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2022-03-19 | Lions 23–21 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.