Lions vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 55.0%draw 2.5%42.5% MunsterMunster 66.0%draw 2.5%31.5% LionsLions 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Munster and 18 Lions, half of them between 7 Munster and 9 Lions, with the middle run at 1 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-27 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Lions 1664, Munster 1728 — 64 points, favouring Munster
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–4Munster5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Munster by 12.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Munster 24–17 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-11-30 | Munster 17–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-04-27 | Lions 13–33 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-01-06 | Munster 33–3 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2022-03-19 | Lions 23–21 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.