Lions vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 77.6%draw 2.5%19.9% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 35.3%draw 2.5%62.2% LionsLions 71.1%draw 2.5%26.4% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 New South Wales Waratahs and 33 Lions, with the middle run at 9 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Lions 1678, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 367 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions5–0–1New South Wales Waratahs6 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Lions by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-28 | New South Wales Waratahs 29–17 Lions | Super Rugby | CommBank Stadium |
| 2019-05-11 | Lions 29–28 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2018-07-28 | Lions 44–26 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2018-04-20 | New South Wales Waratahs 0–29 Lions | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2017-03-04 | Lions 55–36 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.