Lions vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% PauPau 54.1%draw 2.5%43.4% LionsLions 56.7%draw 2.5%40.8% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Pau and 26 Lions, with the middle run at 6 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Pau.
Lions 1678, Pau 1640 — 39 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–0Pau1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Lions by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Lions 43–35 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.