Lions vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 80.0%draw 2.5%17.5% PerpignanPerpignan 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% LionsLions 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Perpignan and 32 Lions, half of them between 2 Lions and 19 Lions, with the middle run at 9 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Lions 1664, Perpignan 1424 — 241 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–1–0Perpignan2 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Lions by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Perpignan 20–20 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2023-12-10 | Perpignan 12–28 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.