Lions vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 78.7%draw 2.5%18.8% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% LionsLions 64.7%draw 2.5%32.8% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Queensland Reds and 31 Lions, with the middle run at 9 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Lions 1678, Queensland Reds 1454 — 225 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions3–0–1Queensland Reds4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Lions by 8.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-08 | Lions 27–20 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2018-04-28 | Queensland Reds 27–22 Lions | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2017-03-18 | Lions 44–14 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2015-03-27 | Queensland Reds 17–18 Lions | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.