Lions vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% Racing 92Racing 92 59.7%draw 2.5%37.8% LionsLions 51.0%draw 2.5%46.5% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Racing 92 and 20 Lions, half of them between 4 Racing 92 and 11 Lions, with the middle run at 3 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Lions 1664, Racing 92 1632 — 32 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–0Racing 921 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Lions by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | Lions 51–28 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.