Lions vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% Racing 92Racing 92 55.6%draw 2.5%41.9% LionsLions 53.8%draw 2.5%43.7% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Racing 92 and 25 Lions, with the middle run at 5 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Racing 92.
Lions 1678, Racing 92 1707 — 29 points, favouring Racing 92
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–0Racing 921 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Lions by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | Lions 51–28 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.