Lions vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 77.1%draw 2.5%20.4% ScarletsScarlets 37.2%draw 2.5%60.3% LionsLions 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Scarlets and 32 Lions, with the middle run at 9 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Scarlets.
Lions 1678, Scarlets 1334 — 344 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions3–0–2Scarlets5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Scarlets by 1.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Lions 29–18 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-05-11 | Lions 19–32 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-11-11 | Scarlets 23–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-12-04 | Lions 32–15 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2021-10-01 | Scarlets 36–13 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.