Lions vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% ScarletsScarlets 39.9%draw 2.5%57.6% LionsLions 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Scarlets and 28 Lions, half of them between 2 Lions and 17 Lions, with the middle run at 8 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Lions 1664, Scarlets 1273 — 391 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions3–0–2Scarlets5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Scarlets by 1.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Lions 29–18 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-05-11 | Lions 19–32 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-11-11 | Scarlets 23–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-12-04 | Lions 32–15 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2021-10-01 | Scarlets 36–13 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.