Lions vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 63.1%draw 2.5%34.4% SharksSharks 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% LionsLions 51.8%draw 2.5%45.7% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Sharks and 27 Lions, with the middle run at 5 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Sharks.
Lions 1678, Sharks 1613 — 66 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions12–0–8Sharks20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sharks by 0.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Sharks by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Lions 34–22 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2026-01-03 | Sharks 22–23 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-03-08 | Sharks 25–22 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-03-01 | Lions 38–14 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-03-02 | Lions 40–10 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.