Lions vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% SharksSharks 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% LionsLions 42.8%draw 2.5%54.7% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sharks and 20 Lions, half of them between 6 Sharks and 10 Lions, with the middle run at 1 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Lions 1664, Sharks 1746 — 82 points, favouring Sharks
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions12–0–9Sharks21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sharks by 0.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Sharks by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Lions 34–22 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2026-01-03 | Sharks 22–23 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-03-08 | Sharks 25–22 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-03-01 | Lions 38–14 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-03-02 | Lions 40–10 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.