Lions vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 65.3%draw 2.5%32.2% LionsLions 41.2%draw 2.5%56.3% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 24 Lions, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Lions 1678, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 97 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–1Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Lions by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Stade Francais Paris 17–7 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2022-12-16 | Lions 30–12 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.