Lions vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 54.3%draw 2.5%43.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% LionsLions 44.5%draw 2.5%53.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Francais Paris and 19 Lions, half of them between 7 Stade Francais Paris and 9 Lions, with the middle run at 1 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Lions 1664, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 67 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions1–0–1Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Lions by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Stade Francais Paris 17–7 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2022-12-16 | Lions 30–12 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.