Lions vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% StormersStormers 59.9%draw 2.5%37.6% LionsLions 46.4%draw 2.5%51.1% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stormers and 24 Lions, with the middle run at 2 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Stormers.
Lions 1678, Stormers 1716 — 37 points, favouring Stormers
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions7–1–8Stormers16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Lions by 1.2 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Stormers by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Stormers 34–27 Lions | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Lions 30–23 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-12-21 | Stormers 29–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Stormers 29–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | Lions 33–35 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.