Lions vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% StormersStormers 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% LionsLions 32.7%draw 2.5%64.8% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stormers and 18 Lions, half of them between 7 Stormers and 9 Lions, with the middle run at 1 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Lions 1664, Stormers 1845 — 181 points, favouring Stormers
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions8–1–9Stormers18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Lions by 0.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Stormers by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Lions 24–10 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-12-20 | Stormers 34–27 Lions | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Lions 30–23 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-12-21 | Stormers 29–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Stormers 29–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.