Lions vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lions 86.3%draw 2.5%11.2% ZebreZebre 27.7%draw 2.5%69.8% LionsLions 79.7%draw 2.5%17.8% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lions v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 36 Lions, half of them between 4 Lions and 24 Lions, with the middle run at 12 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-13 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lions winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lions, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Lions 1664, Zebre 1071 — 594 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions4–0–1Zebre5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Lions by 13.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Zebre 22–20 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-10-19 | Zebre 9–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-11-25 | Lions 61–19 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-04-22 | Lions 50–35 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2021-09-24 | Zebre 26–38 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.