Lions vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lions 81.3%draw 2.5%16.2% ZebreZebre 34.3%draw 2.5%63.2% LionsLions 72.5%draw 2.5%25.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lions wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 37 Lions, with the middle run at 11 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Lions are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lions, negative favours Zebre.
Lions 1678, Zebre 1309 — 370 points, favouring Lions
Lions are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lions4–0–1Zebre5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Lions by 13.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Zebre 22–20 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-10-19 | Zebre 9–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-11-25 | Lions 61–19 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-04-22 | Lions 50–35 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2021-09-24 | Zebre 26–38 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.