Lyon vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 30.3%draw 2.5%67.2% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 82.3%draw 2.5%15.2% LyonLyon 23.0%draw 2.5%74.5% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Montpellier Herault and 12 Lyon, with the middle run at 3 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Lyon 1429, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 453 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon12–0–8Montpellier Herault20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Montpellier Herault by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon 25–28 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-10-18 | Montpellier Herault 35–13 Lyon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Lyon 32–23 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-09-07 | Montpellier Herault 22–26 Lyon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Montpellier Herault 41–26 Lyon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.