Lyon vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault host Lyon on Saturday 7 November at Septeo Stadium, Montpellier, so Montpellier Herault are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Lyon 37.9%draw 2.5%59.6% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 85.3%draw 2.5%12.2% LyonLyon 22.1%draw 2.5%75.4% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Lyon and 34 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 3 Montpellier Herault and 22 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 10 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Lyon 1487 — 485 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon13–0–9Montpellier Herault22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Montpellier Herault by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon 25–28 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-10-18 | Montpellier Herault 35–13 Lyon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Lyon 32–23 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-09-07 | Montpellier Herault 22–26 Lyon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Montpellier Herault 41–26 Lyon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.