Lyon vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 27.8%draw 2.5%69.7% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% LyonLyon 21.1%draw 2.5%76.4% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Northampton Saints and 11 Lyon, with the middle run at 4 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Lyon 1429, Northampton Saints 1918 — 489 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon0–0–2Northampton Saints2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Northampton Saints by 11.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-18 | Lyon 24–36 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-11-17 | Northampton Saints 25–14 Lyon | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.