Lyon vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 33.4%draw 2.5%64.1% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 82.0%draw 2.5%15.5% LyonLyon 22.7%draw 2.5%74.8% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Northampton Saints and 15 Lyon, half of them between 12 Northampton Saints and 4 Lyon, with the middle run at 4 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Lyon 1487, Northampton Saints 1957 — 470 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon0–0–2Northampton Saints2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Northampton Saints by 11.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-18 | Lyon 24–36 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-11-17 | Northampton Saints 25–14 Lyon | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.