Lyon vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 55.0%draw 2.5%42.5% PauPau 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% LyonLyon 29.9%draw 2.5%67.6% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Pau and 18 Lyon, half of them between 6 Pau and 9 Lyon, with the middle run at 1 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Lyon 1487, Pau 1818 — 331 points, favouring Pau
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon11–1–8Pau20 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Lyon by 1.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Lyon by 1.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Lyon 51–25 Pau | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2026-01-03 | Lyon 22–17 Pau | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-09-27 | Pau 40–15 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-05-10 | Lyon 27–29 Pau | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-11-30 | Pau 29–15 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.