Lyon vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 44.2%draw 2.5%53.3% PauPau 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% LyonLyon 35.1%draw 2.5%62.4% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Pau and 14 Lyon, with the middle run at 1 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Pau.
Lyon 1429, Pau 1640 — 211 points, favouring Pau
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon9–1–7Pau17 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Lyon by 0.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Pau by 0.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Lyon 22–17 Pau | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-09-27 | Pau 40–15 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-05-10 | Lyon 27–29 Pau | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-04-27 | Lyon 38–20 Pau | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2023-09-02 | Pau 40–10 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.