Lyon vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 72.6%draw 2.5%24.9% PerpignanPerpignan 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% LyonLyon 58.1%draw 2.5%39.4% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Perpignan and 25 Lyon, half of them between level and 15 Lyon, with the middle run at 6 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Lyon 1487, Perpignan 1424 — 64 points, favouring Lyon
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon10–0–3Perpignan13 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Lyon by 10.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Lyon by 4.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Perpignan 28–32 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-10-11 | Lyon 44–19 Perpignan | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-01-04 | Lyon 17–12 Perpignan | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-10-19 | Perpignan 29–26 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-04-20 | Perpignan 51–20 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.