Lyon vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 72.4%draw 2.5%25.1% PerpignanLyon 62.2%draw 2.5%35.3% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Perpignan and 31 Lyon, with the middle run at 7 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Perpignan.
Lyon 1429, Perpignan 1346 — 83 points, favouring Lyon
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon10–0–3Perpignan13 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Lyon by 10.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Lyon by 4.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Perpignan 28–32 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-10-11 | Lyon 44–19 Perpignan | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-01-04 | Lyon 17–12 Perpignan | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-10-19 | Perpignan 29–26 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-04-20 | Perpignan 51–20 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.