Lyon vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 60.9%draw 2.5%36.6% Racing 92Racing 92 75.9%draw 2.5%21.6% LyonLyon 44.1%draw 2.5%53.4% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Racing 92 and 20 Lyon, half of them between 5 Racing 92 and 11 Lyon, with the middle run at 3 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Lyon 1487, Racing 92 1632 — 145 points, favouring Racing 92
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon12–1–9Racing 9222 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Lyon by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Lyon by 6.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Racing 92 31–48 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2026-01-24 | Racing 92 35–34 Lyon | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-09-06 | Lyon 32–7 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-06-07 | Lyon 34–47 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-05-04 | Lyon 29–15 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.