Lyon vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 43.2%draw 2.5%54.3% Racing 92Racing 92 75.0%draw 2.5%22.5% LyonLyon 33.0%draw 2.5%64.5% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Racing 92 and 16 Lyon, with the middle run at 1 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Racing 92.
Lyon 1429, Racing 92 1707 — 278 points, favouring Racing 92
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon10–1–9Racing 9220 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Lyon by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Lyon by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Racing 92 35–34 Lyon | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-09-06 | Lyon 32–7 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-06-07 | Lyon 34–47 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-05-04 | Lyon 29–15 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-12-29 | Racing 92 25–25 Lyon | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.