Lyon vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 49.3%draw 2.5%48.2% Sale SharksSale Sharks 68.2%draw 2.5%29.3% LyonLyon 39.1%draw 2.5%58.4% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Sale Sharks and 23 Lyon, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Lyon 1429, Sale Sharks 1558 — 129 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–1Sale Sharks2 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Lyon by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-13 | Sale Sharks 15–13 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2017-10-20 | Lyon 27–24 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.