Lyon vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 35.5%draw 2.5%62.0% SaracensSaracens 80.8%draw 2.5%16.7% LyonLyon 26.8%draw 2.5%70.7% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Saracens and 13 Lyon, with the middle run at 3 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Saracens.
Lyon 1429, Saracens 1802 — 373 points, favouring Saracens
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon0–0–5Saracens5 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Saracens by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-20 | Saracens 39–24 Lyon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2023-01-14 | Saracens 48–28 Lyon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2022-12-17 | Lyon 20–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-01-13 | Lyon 10–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2018-10-20 | Saracens 29–10 Lyon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.