Lyon vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% SaracensSaracens 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% LyonLyon 27.4%draw 2.5%70.1% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Saracens and 13 Lyon, half of them between 12 Saracens and 5 Lyon, with the middle run at 2 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Lyon 1487, Saracens 1861 — 374 points, favouring Saracens
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon0–0–5Saracens5 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Saracens by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-20 | Saracens 39–24 Lyon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2023-01-14 | Saracens 48–28 Lyon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2022-12-17 | Lyon 20–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-01-13 | Lyon 10–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2018-10-20 | Saracens 29–10 Lyon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.