Lyon vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 51.5%draw 2.5%46.0% SharksSharks 71.6%draw 2.5%25.9% LyonLyon 38.9%draw 2.5%58.6% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sharks and 21 Lyon, with the middle run at 1 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Sharks.
Lyon 1429, Sharks 1613 — 184 points, favouring Sharks
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–0Sharks1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Lyon by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | Lyon 34–21 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.