Lyon vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 46.9%draw 2.5%50.6% SharksSharks 75.5%draw 2.5%22.0% LyonLyon 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Sharks and 16 Lyon, half of them between 9 Sharks and 7 Lyon, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Lyon 1487, Sharks 1746 — 259 points, favouring Sharks
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–1Sharks2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Lyon by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Lyon 33–40 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-04-06 | Lyon 34–21 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.