Lyon vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 35.5%draw 2.5%62.0% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 77.4%draw 2.5%20.1% LyonLyon 27.5%draw 2.5%70.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Stade Francais Paris and 15 Lyon, with the middle run at 3 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Lyon 1429, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 346 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon13–1–7Stade Francais Paris21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Lyon by 5.4 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Lyon by 0.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Stade Francais Paris 59–17 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-09-20 | Lyon 42–37 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-05-17 | Stade Francais Paris 31–30 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-10-13 | Lyon 35–3 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-03-23 | Stade Francais Paris 22–13 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.