Lyon vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 58.3%draw 2.5%39.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 80.0%draw 2.5%17.5% LyonLyon 36.0%draw 2.5%61.5% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Francais Paris and 21 Lyon, half of them between 5 Stade Francais Paris and 11 Lyon, with the middle run at 3 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Lyon 1487, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 244 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon13–1–8Stade Francais Paris22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Lyon by 4.2 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Stade Francais Paris by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Stade Francais Paris 31–10 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2026-05-09 | Stade Francais Paris 59–17 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-09-20 | Lyon 42–37 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-05-17 | Stade Francais Paris 31–30 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-10-13 | Lyon 35–3 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.