Lyon vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 36.2%draw 2.5%61.3% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 85.7%draw 2.5%11.8% LyonLyon 21.0%draw 2.5%76.5% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Stade Toulousain and 13 Lyon, half of them between 13 Stade Toulousain and 5 Lyon, with the middle run at 3 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Lyon 1487, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 505 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon9–2–11Stade Toulousain22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 5.5 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Stade Toulousain by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Stade Toulousain 39–31 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-12-20 | Lyon 19–41 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-06-01 | Stade Toulousain 43–3 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-12-22 | Lyon 17–17 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-06-08 | Lyon 40–28 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.