Lyon vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 31.1%draw 2.5%66.4% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 79.9%draw 2.5%17.6% LyonLyon 23.5%draw 2.5%74.0% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Stade Toulousain and 13 Lyon, with the middle run at 4 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Lyon 1429, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 434 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon9–2–11Stade Toulousain22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 5.5 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Stade Toulousain by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Stade Toulousain 39–31 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-12-20 | Lyon 19–41 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-06-01 | Stade Toulousain 43–3 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-12-22 | Lyon 17–17 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-06-08 | Lyon 40–28 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.