Lyon vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon 56.5%draw 2.5%41.0% ToulonToulon 78.1%draw 2.5%19.4% LyonLyon 35.8%draw 2.5%61.7% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Toulon and 23 Lyon, half of them between 5 Toulon and 12 Lyon, with the middle run at 2 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Lyon 1487, Toulon 1663 — 176 points, favouring Toulon
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon9–2–13Toulon24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 4.4 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Toulon by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Lyon 13–13 Toulon | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-11-01 | Toulon 54–21 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-03-01 | Lyon 27–20 Toulon | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-11-02 | Toulon 21–10 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-05-11 | Toulon 30–24 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.