Lyon vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 57.0%draw 2.5%40.5% ToulonToulon 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% LyonLyon 49.4%draw 2.5%48.1% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Toulon and 23 Lyon, with the middle run at 2 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Toulon.
Lyon 1429, Toulon 1435 — 6 points, favouring Toulon
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon9–1–13Toulon23 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Toulon by 4.6 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Toulon by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Toulon 54–21 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-03-01 | Lyon 27–20 Toulon | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-11-02 | Toulon 21–10 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-05-11 | Toulon 30–24 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2023-08-19 | Lyon 27–15 Toulon | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.