Lyon vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Lyon host Vannes on Saturday 31 October at Matmut Stadium de Gerland, Lyon, so Lyon are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Lyon 83.2%draw 2.5%14.3% VannesVannes 53.8%draw 2.5%43.7% LyonLyon 67.6%draw 2.5%29.9% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Lyon v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Vannes and 32 Lyon, half of them between 3 Lyon and 21 Lyon, with the middle run at 10 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Lyon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Lyon, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Lyon 1487, Vannes 1280 — 207 points, favouring Lyon
Lyon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–1Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Lyon by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Lyon 36–21 Vannes | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-09-21 | Vannes 30–20 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.