Lyon vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 68.2%draw 2.5%29.3% ZebreZebre 41.8%draw 2.5%55.7% LyonLyon 63.7%draw 2.5%33.8% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Lyon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Zebre and 32 Lyon, with the middle run at 7 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Lyon are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Lyon, negative favours Zebre.
Lyon 1429, Zebre 1309 — 120 points, favouring Lyon
Lyon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Lyon1–0–0Zebre1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Lyon by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Zebre 19–21 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.