Montpellier Herault vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 56.8%draw 2.5%40.7% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 50.4%draw 2.5%47.1% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Northampton Saints and 28 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 4 Northampton Saints and 15 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 4 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Northampton Saints 1957 — 15 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–1Northampton Saints2 meetings, 2016 to 2017 · Montpellier Herault by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-20 | Montpellier Herault 26–17 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2016-10-15 | Northampton Saints 16–14 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.