Montpellier Herault vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 58.2%draw 2.5%39.3% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 61.2%draw 2.5%36.3% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Northampton Saints and 20 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 2 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Northampton Saints 1918 — 36 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–1Northampton Saints2 meetings, 2016 to 2017 · Montpellier Herault by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-20 | Montpellier Herault 26–17 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2016-10-15 | Northampton Saints 16–14 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.