Montpellier Herault vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 76.3%draw 2.5%21.2% PauPau 57.8%draw 2.5%39.7% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 58.3%draw 2.5%39.2% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Pau and 30 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 1 Montpellier Herault and 18 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 8 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Pau 1818 — 154 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault11–0–12Pau23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 5.2 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Montpellier Herault by 3.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Montpellier Herault 19–27 Pau | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2026-05-30 | Montpellier Herault 26–18 Pau | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-12-28 | Pau 35–33 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-03-22 | Pau 40–38 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-11-23 | Montpellier Herault 30–3 Pau | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.