Montpellier Herault vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% PauPau 46.3%draw 2.5%51.2% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 61.9%draw 2.5%35.6% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Pau and 29 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 7 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Pau.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Pau 1640 — 242 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault10–0–10Pau20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 5.6 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Montpellier Herault by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Montpellier Herault 26–18 Pau | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-12-28 | Pau 35–33 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-03-22 | Pau 40–38 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-11-23 | Montpellier Herault 30–3 Pau | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-04-20 | Pau 31–23 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.