Montpellier Herault vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 88.4%draw 2.5%9.1% PerpignanMontpellier Herault 82.4%draw 2.5%15.1% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 13 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Perpignan.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Perpignan 1346 — 536 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault10–0–3Perpignan13 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 10.8 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Montpellier Herault by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Montpellier Herault 42–31 Perpignan | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2026-04-04 | Montpellier Herault 53–13 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-11-22 | Perpignan 0–28 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 2025-04-26 | Montpellier Herault 19–13 Perpignan | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-09-14 | Perpignan 7–26 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.