Montpellier Herault vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 87.4%draw 2.5%10.1% PerpignanPerpignan 33.5%draw 2.5%64.0% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 77.9%draw 2.5%19.6% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 37 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 4 Montpellier Herault and 25 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 13 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Perpignan 1424 — 549 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault11–0–3Perpignan14 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 12.6 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Montpellier Herault by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Montpellier Herault 50–13 Perpignan | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2026-04-18 | Montpellier Herault 42–31 Perpignan | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2026-04-04 | Montpellier Herault 53–13 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-11-22 | Perpignan 0–28 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 2025-04-26 | Montpellier Herault 19–13 Perpignan | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.