Montpellier Herault vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 host Montpellier Herault on Saturday 24 October at MMArena, Le Mans, so Racing 92 are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Montpellier Herault 81.9%draw 2.5%15.6% Racing 92Racing 92 48.7%draw 2.5%48.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 67.2%draw 2.5%30.3% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Montpellier Herault and 15 Racing 92, half of them between 10 Montpellier Herault and 7 Racing 92, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Racing 92 1632, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 341 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Montpellier Herault are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Racing 92 are on 48.7%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault10–1–12Racing 9223 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 4.2 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Montpellier Herault by 6.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Montpellier Herault 41–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-10-11 | Racing 92 32–25 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2025-05-31 | Racing 92 25–27 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-12-21 | Montpellier Herault 21–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-02-17 | Racing 92 20–44 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.