Montpellier Herault vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% Racing 92Racing 92 52.5%draw 2.5%45.0% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 58.5%draw 2.5%39.0% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Racing 92 and 27 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 6 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Racing 92.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Racing 92 1707 — 175 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault8–1–12Racing 9221 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Montpellier Herault by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Montpellier Herault by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Racing 92 32–25 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2024-12-21 | Montpellier Herault 21–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-02-17 | Racing 92 20–44 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2023-10-29 | Montpellier Herault 16–19 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2023-01-08 | Montpellier Herault 17–12 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.