Montpellier Herault vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 79.6%draw 2.5%17.9% Sale SharksSale Sharks 39.4%draw 2.5%58.1% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 67.6%draw 2.5%29.9% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Sale Sharks and 33 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 9 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Sale Sharks 1558 — 324 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–0Sale Sharks1 meeting, 2016 to 2016 · Montpellier Herault by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-08 | Sale Sharks 19–25 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.