Montpellier Herault vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 81.9%draw 2.5%15.6% Sale SharksSale Sharks 34.0%draw 2.5%63.5% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 74.7%draw 2.5%22.8% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Sale Sharks and 36 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 3 Montpellier Herault and 22 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 11 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Sale Sharks 1504 — 468 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–0Sale Sharks1 meeting, 2016 to 2016 · Montpellier Herault by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-08 | Sale Sharks 19–25 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.