Montpellier Herault vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 61.1%draw 2.5%36.4% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 57.7%draw 2.5%39.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 50.5%draw 2.5%47.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stade Francais Paris and 25 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 3 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 107 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault11–1–10Stade Francais Paris22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 1.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Francais Paris by 0.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Montpellier Herault 25–15 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2025-10-25 | Stade Francais Paris 35–12 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-03-29 | Montpellier Herault 38–32 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-10-05 | Stade Francais Paris 29–20 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-03-30 | Montpellier Herault 10–12 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.