Montpellier Herault vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 81.7%draw 2.5%15.8% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 66.5%draw 2.5%31.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Stade Francais Paris and 33 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 2 Montpellier Herault and 20 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 9 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 241 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault12–1–11Stade Francais Paris24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 2.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Stade Francais Paris by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Stade Francais Paris 30–22 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2026-06-20 | Montpellier Herault 25–15 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2026-01-31 | Montpellier Herault 44–7 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-10-25 | Stade Francais Paris 35–12 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-03-29 | Montpellier Herault 38–32 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.