Montpellier Herault vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 67.0%draw 2.5%30.5% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Toulousain and 24 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 3 Stade Toulousain and 13 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 5 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 31-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 20 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault8–0–19Stade Toulousain27 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 3.5 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Stade Toulousain by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Stade Toulousain 40–18 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2026-06-27 | Stade Toulousain 28–20 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade de France |
| 2026-03-28 | Stade Toulousain 45–29 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-09-20 | Montpellier Herault 44–14 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Stade Toulousain 27–17 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.