Montpellier Herault vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 57.4%draw 2.5%40.1% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 58.7%draw 2.5%38.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Toulousain and 21 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 2 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 19 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault8–1–18Stade Toulousain27 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Stade Toulousain by 8.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Stade Toulousain 28–20 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade de France |
| 2026-03-28 | Stade Toulousain 45–29 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-09-20 | Montpellier Herault 44–14 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Stade Toulousain 27–17 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-09-21 | Montpellier Herault 11–20 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.