Montpellier Herault vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 81.7%draw 2.5%15.8% ToulonToulon 56.7%draw 2.5%40.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Toulon and 35 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 2 Montpellier Herault and 22 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 10 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Toulon 1663 — 309 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault12–2–12Toulon26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Toulon by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Montpellier Herault 28–0 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade de la Mosson |
| 2026-01-25 | Toulon 30–27 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-09-06 | Montpellier Herault 17–27 Toulon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Montpellier Herault 30–38 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 2024-10-19 | Toulon 30–17 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.