Montpellier Herault vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 82.3%draw 2.5%15.2% ToulonToulon 30.5%draw 2.5%67.0% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 74.4%draw 2.5%23.1% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Toulon and 32 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 10 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Toulon.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Toulon 1435 — 447 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault11–2–12Toulon25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 2.6 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Toulon by 6.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Toulon 30–27 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-09-06 | Montpellier Herault 17–27 Toulon | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Montpellier Herault 30–38 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 2024-10-19 | Toulon 30–17 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-03-23 | Toulon 54–7 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.