Montpellier Herault vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 90.7%draw 2.5%6.8% US MontaubanMontpellier Herault 87.2%draw 2.5%10.3% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Montpellier Herault and 41 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 15 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-15 on a tight afternoon and 42-27 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours US Montauban.
Montpellier Herault 1882, US Montauban 824 — 1057 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–1–0US Montauban2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 26.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Montpellier Herault 59–7 US Montauban | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-09-27 | US Montauban 22–22 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.