Montpellier Herault vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 78.1%draw 2.5%19.4% VannesMontpellier Herault 70.8%draw 2.5%26.7% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Vannes and 36 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 11 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Vannes.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Vannes 1510 — 372 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–1Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Vannes by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Vannes 37–24 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-10-12 | Montpellier Herault 26–24 Vannes | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.