Montpellier Herault vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault 90.7%draw 2.5%6.8% VannesVannes 27.4%draw 2.5%70.1% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 5 Montpellier Herault and 25 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 13 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Vannes 1280 — 692 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault2–0–1Vannes3 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Vannes 12–26 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2025-02-22 | Vannes 37–24 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-10-12 | Montpellier Herault 26–24 Vannes | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.