Montpellier Herault vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Montpellier Herault 88.4%draw 2.5%9.1% ZebreZebre 17.3%draw 2.5%80.2% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 84.5%draw 2.5%13.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 14 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Montpellier Herault, negative favours Zebre.
Montpellier Herault 1882, Zebre 1309 — 573 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Montpellier Herault1–0–0Zebre1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Montpellier Herault by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Montpellier Herault 31–7 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.