Munster vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Munster 43.9%draw 2.5%53.6% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 75.1%draw 2.5%22.4% MunsterMunster 32.6%draw 2.5%64.9% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Munster v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Northampton Saints and 16 Munster, half of them between 9 Northampton Saints and 7 Munster, with the middle run at 1 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Munster are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Munster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Munster, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Munster 1728, Northampton Saints 1957 — 229 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Munster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster2–0–3Northampton Saints5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Northampton Saints 34–32 Munster | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-04-07 | Northampton Saints 24–14 Munster | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-01-20 | Munster 23–26 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2023-01-14 | Munster 27–23 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2022-12-18 | Northampton Saints 6–17 Munster | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.