Munster vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Munster 45.6%draw 2.5%51.9% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 71.5%draw 2.5%26.0% MunsterMunster 34.7%draw 2.5%62.8% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Munster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Northampton Saints and 15 Munster, with the middle run at 1 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Munster are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Munster, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Munster 1670, Northampton Saints 1918 — 248 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Munster are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Munster2–0–3Northampton Saints5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Northampton Saints 34–32 Munster | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-04-07 | Northampton Saints 24–14 Munster | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-01-20 | Munster 23–26 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2023-01-14 | Munster 27–23 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2022-12-18 | Northampton Saints 6–17 Munster | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.